According to the digital logistics operator versta.io, the fuel shortage caused the net profit of private carriers to fall 1.5 times in just one month. The situation is most difficult on trunk routes, which has already triggered growing demand for rail freight. The company’s experts forecast that 30–35% of small logistics companies may leave the market by the end of this year.

Carriers are raising the average “ruble per kilometer” tariff, although the market is still remaining within acceptable price ranges: by 8–9% for intra-city transportation and by 10–11% for trunk routes. However, fuel prices are rising faster. Some market players are still keeping prices unchanged while waiting for stabilization. Many of them plan to monitor the situation and decide within 2–3 months whether to introduce a single increased tariff.

At the same time, the number of completed orders across all regions remains roughly at the previous level. Both drivers and carriers are ready to lose part of their own profit in order to maintain service levels: when there are many orders, they change routes and go to more expensive filling stations. This affects the net profit of private carriers — in most federal districts, it has fallen almost 1.5 times over the month.

The market expects the situation to stabilize in the coming months if fuel supplies are rationed. Queues at filling stations should disappear and, as a result, serious delays should be reduced. At the same time, prices, especially for trunk transportation, will not be lowered, which will affect the end consumer. Rail freight will be used as an alternative delivery channel, and its volume may increase.

“The situation is being aggravated by the urgent need for carriers to switch to electronic transport documents. Many players are already openly saying they are unwilling to master new digital tools and are afraid of the new system — they find it difficult to understand the changes. Large market participants will certainly weather the ‘storm’ and, in the long term, will only strengthen their positions. Small companies will either move into the shadow economy, working only within city limits, come under the wing of larger players, or cease to exist altogether,” said Viktor Sizov, co-founder of the digital logistics operator versta.io.