In August, the structure of Russian supplies to Chinese refineries changed noticeably. Whereas China previously purchased mainly ESPO crude from ports in the Far East, Urals now accounts for one-third of all oil it receives from Russia, or 31%. This crude is shipped from ports in the European part of Russia, primarily Primorsk and Ust-Luga. In addition, slightly less than 1 million barrels from Russia are being pumped through pipelines.

This reconfiguration has led to a sharp contraction in Indian imports. In August, India’s purchases of Russian crude fell to 1.87 million barrels per day (bpd), almost 1 million bpd below the July peak of 2.79 million bpd and lower than the June level of 2.73 million bpd. Supplies of Urals to India from Russia’s European ports collapsed by 30% to 1.82 million bpd.

India’s total crude purchases in August amounted to just 4.17 million bpd — the lowest level since the start of the Middle East conflict. For a country that exports the largest volumes of fuel in the region, such a decline in crude imports is a critical signal.

If Indian refiners lack enough feedstock to maintain production, Asia could face an acute shortage of refined petroleum products as early as next month, Reuters predicts.